Deploy-signal track record

Each call is graded against one honest counterfactual: DEPLOY calls replay the recommended position; SIT OUT calls replay the standard $1,000 ±15% (what you'd otherwise have deployed — the position every leaderboard row prices). "Following the signal" sums the dollars each call earned (deploys that beat holding) or saved (deploys avoided that would have lost). MARGINAL calls are hedges — logged below, excluded from the headline.

Stricter still: in 6 of 34scored sit-out windows, not even the best of all six widths beat holding. (A maximum over six tries is a biased test — that's why it's a footnote, not the headline.)

Each call is replayed as a $1,000 position at the recommended width over the pool's real next-30-day history, scored against a 50/50 hold. Same engine validated within 4% of a real position. Method: /methodology.